CHALLENGE

Identifying which farmland is most at risk from future development

Across the United States, farmland is increasingly being converted to residential and other low-density development, threatening agricultural production, rural communities, and long-term land conservation.

For planners and policymakers, understanding the scale of this loss is only part of the challenge. They also need to know where development pressure is greatest, which properties are most vulnerable, and how different growth strategies could affect future land use.

Traditional land-use forecasts can identify broad development trends, but often lack the geographic detail needed to guide decisions at the local level.

To make its forecasts more useful for conservation planning, the research team needed consistent nationwide property data that could support development modelling at the individual parcel level.

SOLUTION

Combining nationwide parcel data with land-use modelling to forecast development

University of Wisconsin researchers used Regrid's nationwide parcel dataset, covering approximately 150 million properties, as a consistent spatial foundation for their analysis.

The parcel boundaries and associated property information enabled the team to integrate additional datasets, including satellite imagery, zoning, land use, and infrastructure data, into a unified modelling framework.

Researchers then simulated future development under two scenarios: one assuming current sprawl patterns continue, and another reflecting smarter growth strategies.

By analysing development pressure at the parcel level, the team could identify where agricultural land was most likely to be converted and estimate how much farmland could potentially be preserved through alternative planning approaches.

Regrid's standardised parcel data helped bridge the gap between nationwide development forecasts and the individual properties where land-use decisions ultimately take place.

“Regrid’s parcel data has been instrumental in helping us translate diverse data into property-level insights at the scales that matter for decision making.”

- Tyler Lark

RESULTS

Revealing how smarter growth could protect 18 million acres of farmland by 2040

The research revealed that more than 24 million acres of American farmland could be lost to development by 2040 if current sprawl trends continue.

Importantly, the modelling also demonstrated that smart-growth strategies could potentially save 18 million of those acres, illustrating the substantial influence of future land-use decisions.

Because the analysis was conducted at the parcel level, the findings provide more than a national estimate of farmland loss. They help planners, policymakers, and conservation organisations understand where development pressure is building and where land protection efforts could have the greatest impact.

For public agencies, the research provides insights to inform growth planning. For conservation organisations, it helps identify vulnerable agricultural land and prioritise protection strategies.

By making parcel-level analysis possible across the country, Regrid helped researchers turn complex development forecasts into geographically specific insights that can support more informed decisions about the future of America's farmland.

See how Regrid has helped others